Huntersville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

601
FXUS62 KGSP 092329
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
729 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches Thursday bringing chances for showers
and a few thunderstorms through Friday. Dry and cool weather returns
over the weekend. Expecting warmer weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages

1) Below Normal Highs Continue

2) Cloud Cover Gradually Increases Overnight with Dry Conditions
Continuing

3) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Return Thursday Ahead of a Low
Pressure System

Dry sfc high pressure will gradually lift northeastward into the
western Atlantic while sfc a low pressure system gradually
approaches out of the west through the near term.

Skies remain clear early this evening before clouds ramp up across
the area overnight. Winds remain on the lighter side with directions
finally settling to S to SE. Some low end gusts continue across the
mountains. Dry conditions continue overnight but cloud cover will
gradually increase becoming mostly cloudy for most locations by
daybreak Thursday. Despite light winds overnight, cloud cover will
limit radiational cooling which should prevent frost formation. Lows
tonight will end up near climo, with all locations expected to
remain above freezing.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return from west to east from mid-
morning to early evening Thursday ahead of the low pressure system.
Have the highest PoPs (likely to categorical) across the northern
half of the forecast area with lower PoPs (chance) across the
southern zones. 45-60 kts of deep layer shear will be in place ahead
of the system, with less than 1,000 J/kg of SBCAPE expected to
develop during peak heating. So, a few isolated strong to severe
storms cannot be entirely ruled out Thursday afternoon/early
evening. The main hazards would be damaging winds gusts and large
hail with any storm that manages to become severe. However,
confidence on the severe threat is low at this time as better
forcing and instability will remain west of the forecast area. Highs
on Thursday will be limited by both rain and cloud cover, ending up
~3-5 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Wed: If a second round of convection is not already
ongoing at 00z Fri, one may get going in western and/or southern
parts of our CWA during the evening. A linear MCS may have developed
over some portion of northern MS/AL/GA at the start of the period;
instability and low-level theta-e will be considerably better over
central AL/GA than our CWA so it is more likely to track in that
direction, and this is supported by most CAM output. However,
as trough digs and embedded shortwave and cold front swing
eastward overnight, any lingering instability over the CWA could
materialize into showers or t-storms. Although CAPE and strong
0-6km shear appear may overlap for a time in the evening over parts
of the southern CWA, the better forcing appears unlikely to have
arrived by then. The remaining overnight CAPE profiles are largely
"skinny" and model QPF response looks to result from disorganized
convection. Can`t dismiss the SPC D2 Marginal Risk especially if
MCS or cold-pool driven cells make a run at the area in the evening,
but feel it does not need to be any farther east than it is.

The shortwave/front appear likely to have crossed most of the CWA
by daybreak Friday, although the I-77 corridor might not see the
fropa occur until 15-18z. Development of downslope west to northwest
flow across the Piedmont should lead to a lull in coverage behind
the front, at least for a time. There remains disagreement among
the major models as to whether a cutoff low actually develops at
500mb Thu night into Fri morning, and that may play a role in
how long the front lingers over our eastern zones. Regardless,
the better diurnal instability developing ahead of the front looks
to develop to our east, and shear will diminish near/behind the
front, so severe risk looks minimal for Friday. The base of the
trough however will remain overhead through the day; decent lapse
rates and perhaps a secondary convergence axis warrant keeping PoPs
through most of the day east of the mountains. Northwest flow into
the Appalachians will produce upslope precip there (see below),
with chances not looking likely to diminish until sometime Saturday.

Overnight temps Thu night will be near or slightly below normal; max
temps Friday will be 6-10 below normal. Friday night looks somewhat
windy under continuing CAA, although skies will trend clearer east
of the mountain spine. Cooling temps still imply a change to snow
where the NW flow precip is still ongoing overnight. To boot, the
spring frost-freeze program will be activated Friday in the SW NC
mountains and French Broad Valley; a high-elevation freeze appears
a reasonable bet with potentially frosty (but above-freezing)
temps in the middle elevations and valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wed: Sfc high will build into the area Saturday night as
transient, shortwave ridge moves across the mid-MS Valley. Weakening
low-level flow and mostly clear skies will permit good radiational
cooling and make Sunday morning the coldest of the period.
Frost-freeze headlines again will be possible in the SW NC mountains.
Max temps will be a few below normal Sunday. WAA with the passage of
the ridge axis will promote warming through Monday, when maxes return
to near 80 in the Piedmont and major mountain valleys.  Heights fall
Monday night as cyclone matures over the northern Great Lakes and
surrounding trough moves across the OH/TN valleys. Cold front will
reach the Appalachians early Tuesday, bringing cooler max temps and a
chance of rain to the mountains. Near-normal temps return to all
areas Tue night, lasting into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Cirrus spreads across the area this evening
with low VFR developing toward daybreak and low level moisture and
weak isentropic lift begin. Guidance has backed off on the potential
for MVFR cigs, but do agree on morning MVFR for all but KCLT and
KAND. These cigs should lift to low VFR by 18Z, with low VFR
elsewhere through the day. Shower chances, and MVFR restrictions,
increase during the afternoon ahead of a weak boundary moving in
from the NW. Have PROB30s in place for these. Can`t rule out a TSRA
but chance is low with weak instability at best. Light S to SE wind
overnight picks up speed during the morning. Winds turn more SW for
the afternoon with low end gusts possible.

Outlook: A low pressure system will bring showers (and possibly
thunderstorms) and associated restrictions Thursday afternoon into
Friday. Dry high pressure returns for the weekend into Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...RWH